THE WORLD AFTER 2020

THE WORLD AFTER 2020 

Across the developed world, political leaders are devising solutions to the global economic crisis which include measures to ameliorate global warming and improve energy security, only to have them shot down by the environmentalists who claim the rest of the rescue package harms the environment even more than it helps. Down here in Southern Africa, the politicians are so wrapped up in preening and pontificating ahead of elections that they haven't had time to come up with comprehensive, concrete measures to cope with the economic crisis, cut carbon emissions, prepare for oil prices sky-rocketing as crude reserves run out and address the perennial challenge of finding work for the unskilled unemployed. To help them, here's my one-page blueprint for what we should do:

Tap the Congo and Zambezi Rivers: Unlike other continents which have utilised 40% or more of their hydroelectric potential, Africa uses less than 10%. Ten years ago, when we were helping Eskom develop their African business strategy, we were told time and again by Eskom engineers that the Inga Gorge on the Congo River could generate more electricity than Europe then consumed. Why is this project never mentioned in Eskom's plans instead of more and more coal fired power stations? (On the plus side, this week Eskom announced its next baseload power plant would use solar thermal energy, not coal, and a Scottish wind turbine manufacturer signed a £ 19 million deal with the South African government to supply thousands of turbines). 

Locate metallurgical and manufacturing facilities close to mines and hydro transmission lines: It makes little sense in an energy starved world to ship raw ores half-way round the globe and then ship the finished goods back again. Rather use local labour to make lighter finished products so the content is shipped once only.

Introduce a fast train connecting Bloemfontein to Cape Town, Durban and Sandton. In Europe or Japan trains zoom along at 300 km per hour and more, so why not here? If you add up the time taken to get to an airport, check in, wait around, fly, wait around some more for baggage and then drive again, the train would be faster, more comfortable and convenient and use no jet fuel.

Build cycle paths in the main cities. A quick visit to cities like Montreal, Boston or Vancouver, none of which can boast Africa's sunny weather year round, will show people cycling everywhere and lanes on even the busiest streets closed to motorised traffic. And cycling is healthy too. All the excuses about security, bike theft, kids having too many books and bags to take to school or arriving sweatily at work could be solved with a little bit of practical thinking by local communities.

Install solar hot water systems: As piping hot water gushes out of my shower each morning from the solar geyser on my roof, I wonder why so few houses here have the same facility when solar systems are so widespread in a country like Germany with its comparatively inclement climate? A quick calculation shows that for the price of building two coal fired power stations, more than 800,000 homes could have solar geysers so why has the existing Eskom subsidy scheme only attracted a paltry 800 households? And the running cost of a solar system is next to nothing compared with endlessly feeding furnaces and fixing transmission lines.

Cancel some planned projects including Eskom's coal fired power stations, Sasol's CTL plant, new coal mines, the oil pipeline from Durban to Johannesburg, Durban's La Lucia airport, Coega's oil refinery and aluminium smelter, the pebble bed nuclear reactor, new highways and a whole lot more. These are all projects planned by those with vested interests in the status quo on the assumption that tomorrow is going to be exactly the same as yesterday. It's not and it's high time we understood that!

Change the fiscal regime to punish the manufacturers and operators of gasoline guzzling vehicles and reward makers and users of electric cars and bicycles; to shift goods transport from road to rail; to reward schools whose pupils are not delivered to the school gate by their pandering parents in SUVs but use bikes, foot and public transport; and to encourage home and office owners to generate their own power - and more - and hot water from the sun and the wind. (Some of this is slowly starting to happen though in a somewhat haphazard manner).

Utilise carbon credits: Last week I received an E-mail from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, a UK government department, patting itself on the back for purchasing carbon credits from four low carbon projects in emerging markets to offset air travel emissions. With all the carbon trading going on, there should be billions of credits available to finance a huge chunk of the initiatives in this blueprint. Maybe you can even get a carbon credit or two to pay for your solar geyser!

I am sure that just about every one of the 100,000 and more of you who receive this newsletter, whether you live in Africa or not. will be nodding your head in agreement as you read these suggestions on how to improve the economy, cut carbon emissions, improve energy security, increase employment, lead healthier lives, improve foreign exchange reserves and generally give the continent a competitive advantage economically and in the moral debates ahead. Yet, despite the fact that most of us live in working democracies, little, if any, of this is likely to be implemented here or indeed anywhere else and so next to nothing of this extensive list of benefits will be achieved.

Maybe we've got to stop relying on ineffective political leaders who can't see further than being re-elected a few months hence and start ourselves, acting as responsible individual consumers, parents, employers and employees, setting an example with our actions while putting pressure on every single politician and transport or energy sector leader we know to start acting in all our interests. Remember, the future only comes once and we need to make sure it's the best one for all generations!

Some other useful links to further stimulate your thinking about where the world is going: MBendi Blog - Signposts to 2020 | Previous Newsletters | World Outlook